Saturday, July 13, 2024

Evaluating Cost-Effectiveness of Antivirals for Influenza Control

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Pandemic influenza poses a recurring threat to public health. Antiviral drugs are vital in combating influenza pandemics. Baloxavir marboxil (BXM) is a novel agent that provides clinical and public health benefits in influenza treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding BXM to oseltamivir in China’s influenza pandemic scenario using a linked dynamic transmission-economic evaluation model. We constructed a linked dynamic transmission-economic evaluation model combining a modified susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model and a decision tree model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding BXM to oseltamivir in China’s influenza pandemic scenario.

The cost-effectiveness was evaluated for the general population from the Chinese healthcare system perspective, although the users of BXM and oseltamivir were influenza-infected persons. The SEIR model simulated the transmission dynamics, dividing the population into four compartments: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered, while the decision tree model assessed disease severity and costs. We utilized data from clinical trials and observational studies in the literature to parameterize the models. Costs were based on 2021 CN¥ and not discounted due to a short time frame of one year in the model. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also conducted to ensure the robustness of the findings.

Results and Findings

The integrated model demonstrated that adding BXM to treatment choices reduced the cumulative incidence of infection from 49.49% to 43.26% and increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 0.00021 per person compared with oseltamivir alone in the base-case scenario. The intervention also amounted to a positive net monetary benefit of CN¥77.85 per person at the willingness to pay of CN¥80,976 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings, with consistent results across varied key parameters and assumptions. Additionally, the dual-agent strategy showed enhanced efficacy in reducing the spread of the virus, potentially leading to lower overall healthcare costs and less strain on healthcare resources.

Adding BXM to treatment choices instead of only treating with oseltamivir for influenza pandemic control in China appears to be cost-effective compared with oseltamivir alone. The dual-agent strategy not only enhances population health outcomes and conserves resources, but also mitigates influenza transmission and alleviates the healthcare burden. By effectively reducing the number of infections and the severity of the disease, this approach ensures that healthcare facilities are not overwhelmed during peak influenza seasons. Furthermore, the strategy promotes quicker recovery times for patients, thereby decreasing the length of hospital stays and freeing up medical resources for other critical needs.


Implications for Influenza Pandemic Control

Implementing such a strategy could significantly improve the management of influenza pandemics, leading to better health outcomes and more efficient use of healthcare resources. By incorporating BXM alongside oseltamivir, healthcare providers can offer a more robust response to influenza outbreaks, potentially reducing mortality rates and long-term complications associated with severe influenza cases. This comprehensive treatment plan would be particularly beneficial in densely populated areas where the transmission rate is higher, ensuring a more controlled and manageable outbreak scenario.

This approach supports the broader adoption of innovative antiviral treatments in national health policies. By demonstrating the cost-effectiveness and clinical benefits of the dual-agent strategy, policymakers can be encouraged to update current treatment guidelines to include new and effective antiviral options. Such policy changes could also foster ongoing research and development in the field of antiviral medications, encouraging pharmaceutical companies to invest in the creation of new treatments that could further enhance pandemic preparedness and response.


Resource: Springer Link, July 03, 2024

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