Key Takeaways:
- Without intervention, hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence and mortality in China are projected to increase significantly by 2030.
- A comprehensive strategy involving increased screening and treatment could drastically reduce HCV incidence by 88.15% and related mortality by 60.5% by 2030.
- Achieving these targets would require a significant financial commitment, estimated at USD 52.78 billion.
China is home to the highest number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections globally, making it a critical focus in the effort to achieve the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2030 hepatitis C elimination targets. Despite the severity of the epidemic, there is uncertainty surrounding the necessary levels of screening and treatment required to meet these ambitious goals. A recent modeling study, published in PharmacoEconomics on September 2, 2024, provides crucial insights into the impact of scaling up HCV interventions and the associated costs for achieving elimination targets across the entire population in China.
The study, conducted by Meiyu Wu and colleagues, developed a comprehensive compartmental model that incorporates various aspects of HCV transmission, disease progression, and the care cascade. This model was calibrated using data on demographics, injecting drug use, HCV prevalence, and current treatment practices in China. Five distinct scenarios were evaluated for their potential effects and costs over the period from 2022 to 2030, with all costs adjusted to 2021 US dollar (USD) values and discounted at an annual rate of 5%.
The findings of the study paint a concerning picture if current policies remain unchanged. Under the status quo scenario, the incidence of hepatitis C is projected to rise from 60.39 per 100,000 person-years in 2022 to 68.72 per 100,000 person-years by 2030. Additionally, the study estimates that 2.52 million individuals will die due to hepatitis C between 2022 and 2030, with 0.76 million deaths directly attributable to the virus. These projections underscore the urgent need for enhanced HCV prevention and control measures in China.
A Path to Elimination: Scaling Up Interventions
To counter this growing burden, the study explored a more aggressive intervention strategy. This strategy involves increasing primary screening rates to 10%, implementing regular rescreening (annually for people who inject drugs (PWID) and every five years for the general population), and ensuring that 90% of diagnosed patients receive treatment. The results of this scenario were promising, indicating that such measures could reduce the incidence of hepatitis C by an impressive 88.15% compared to 2015 levels. Additionally, hepatitis C-related mortality could be decreased by 60.5% by 2030.
While these outcomes are highly encouraging, they come with significant financial implications. The study estimates that the comprehensive strategy would cost approximately USD 52.78 billion over the study period. This substantial investment highlights the critical need for resource allocation and policy prioritization if China is to successfully combat the hepatitis C epidemic.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for China’s Hepatitis CElimination Efforts
The study’s findings offer a clear message: without substantial changes in HCV prevention and control policies, the burden of hepatitis C in China will continue to escalate, with devastating consequences for public health. However, by scaling up screening and treatment efforts, China has the potential to drastically reduce the incidence and mortality associated with the virus.
Achieving the WHO’s 2030 hepatitis C elimination targets will require not only a robust intervention strategy but also a significant financial commitment from the Chinese government and its healthcare system. As the clock ticks towards 2030, the decisions made in the coming years will be crucial in determining the success of China’s fight against hepatitis C.
Resource: Springer Link, September 02, 2024
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